The Glass is Half ...

Saw a couple of interesting blog posts/articles recently. Daniel Nenni's data-rich 2010 Semiconductor Forecast made me feel quite bullish about the near-term prospects for our industry. Update: EE Times' Top 25 predictions for semis in 2010 are specific and considerably more dour than Mr. Nenni's forecast.

The other is ominous for the long-term: Is Moore's Law near its end? - Now Hear This! - Blog on EDN. But really, running out of steam in less than five years? Be sure to read the comment stream, as there are some good additions there.

My perspective is that a near-term uptick is certainly overdue. By all indications, the US economy is starting to recover, and with it, consumer spending on electronics will get a nice boost. There's certainly a lot of innovation being shown at the Consumer Electronics Show this week.

As for Moore's Law, I think it keeps working as long as we're using planar CMOS. If we have to transition to fundamentally different materials, or 3D structures, all bets are off.